Sunday, 13 January 2013

Western Conference Predictions

Follow up to the Eastern predictions (duh).

Western Conference


1) St. Louis Blues (CEN)   

The St. Louis Blues were the second best team in the league last year, and will have the benefit of a goaltending tandem splitting the workload of the season.  I'm not suggesting that Brian Elliot posts the same numbers as last year, but I don't think the regression will be all the way to the mean; his season will be above average.  Ken Hitchcock's defence-first system will be an asset, as Western conference teams traditionally play a less open game than their Eastern counterparts.  Pietrangelo and Shattenkirk patrolling the blueline will help ensure that the defence remains solid.  Look out for Backes to have a monster year.

2) Los Angeles Kings (PAC)   

The defending Cup champions will be icing essentially the same roster that steamrolled through last year's playoffs.  I enter every single season looking at the West and thinking "Holy shit, the Kings are going to be great this year!", only for them to underachieve, and me not feel anxious about them at all.  I have the same outlook this year, and with Jon Quick being backed up by Jon Bernier, not many goals will be scored against L.A..  This minimizes the effect of Kopitar being out of the lineup to begin the season.  Holy shit, the Kings are going to be great this year!

3) Vancouver Canucks (NW)   

Hockey's seeding ensures that the divisional leaders obtain the top three seeds in the playoffs.  This iteration of the Canucks is not the third best Western team, I say they're fifth.  Still, due to the seeding, they fall here. Schnieder's situation mirrors Tukka Rask's in that a more than capable backup is getting his first full season workload.  Schnieder should be up to the task.  Kesler is out for who knows how long; he and his agent are hinting that it's possible it won't be until the playoffs.  Couple that with a defence that is, while still solid at the top, thinner than it has been in years, and the shortened season will see a statistical step back for the back-to-back Presidents Trophy winners.  The second line is in shambles, and if this team can't produce on the powerplay, then it's difficult to call them legitimate Cup contenders.  The fact is that the Canucks have long benefited from playing in one of the weakest divisions in the NHL.  I'm not saying this is the year someone displaces them, but the North-West as a whole improved, which should see the Canucks winning percentage against its own division (last year, .771) take a hit.

4) Anaheim Ducks (PAC)   

Boy were the Ducks bad last year.  This year will be different; Perry, Ryan, and Getzlaf are simply too good to be that bad again.  Same goes for Jonas Hiller.  I think that Anaheim will be powerhouses of the West this year, competing with the Kings for the division title.  The Teemu Selanne farewell tour begins Saturday in Vancouver, as it will likely be his last season.  Can he continue to produce at such a high pace?  I think that he'll still be considered a consensus top-6 player (on a team, not league-wide), so no problem there.

5) Chicago Blackhawks (CEN)   

It pains me to type this as a Canucks fan, but the Blackhawks will be good.  Yeah, they don't have the depth that won them the Cup.  Yeah, their goaltending leaves much to be desired.  But they will benefit from having a young team, and from Detroit likely taking a step back this year.  The Blackhawks' success, much like the Canucks', will be dependent on whether the powerplay can be effective.

6) Detroit Red Wings (CEN)   

Gone are Lidstrom and Kronwall.  A rookie called Damian Brunner is likely going to be the top line forward.  Gone is Hudler.  The Red Wings are in a mini-transformation period; a small bump in the road for an extremely well run team.  They'll be a tough matchup almost every night, but this is not the season that the Red Wings run away with the West.

7) Dallas Stars (PAC)   

I'm not sure what to think of the Stars this year to be quite honest.  Jamie Benn is still unsigned (though that be sorted out within a couple of days), and Jagr is going to be a focal point of their offence.  I don't know why (hell it might just be wishful thinking given that I have Lehtonen in my fantasy hockey league), but I think the Stars will surprise some people this year.  For the past two seasons, they have been vying for a playoff spot right up into the last week of the season.  This year has to be playoffs or bust; if they miss this year, it might be time to blow it up.

8) Minnesota Wild (NW)   

Twin $98 million contracts to Parise and Suter means the Wild are a better team.  They're not great or anything, but certainly better.  This team tends to be streaky and that will be a huge factor in this shortened season.  I think that Mikael Granlund will have a big impact with the club this year, and even though Danny Heatley is just awful, the Wild will make the playoffs.

9) Phoenix Coyotes (PAC)

Shane Doan is getting older, and Mike Smith won't have as good a year.  It'll be a tough year for the defending Pacific division champions.

10)  Edmonton Oilers (NW)

Tons of exciting young players won't be enough to get the Oilers into the playoffs this year.  God, could you imagine if they won the lottery a fourth year in a row?  Because that's a possibility now with the restructured CBA.

11) Nashville Predators (CEN)

Am I overrating the effect Ryan Suter's departure will have on this club?  Maybe, but I think that Weber will have a slightly harder time with his new defensive partner, and the fact the Weber seemed intent on getting out of Nashville will be an awkward elephant in the corner until he proves otherwise.  Any team with Rinne in net will be competitive, but the Preds will fall short.

12)  San Jose Sharks (PAC)

The once-powerful Sharks are a shell of themselves.  For those of you who don't know, I hate Joe Thornton, and will be pleased to see this team miss the playoffs.

13)  Colorado Avalanche (NW)

Good young players, but not enough to make an impact.  I do love Landeskog and O'Reilley though.

14) Calgary Flames (NW)

I predict that Hudler is a massive bust.  I feel bad for Kipprusoff.

15) Columbus Blue Jackets (CEN)

When you lose your best player and were already the worst team, you're in trouble.  This isn't Coach Carter on ice.

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