NHL midseason check-up: Western Conference

While my Eastern Conference midseason report was, you know, at the mid-season point, the latter half is more like a mid-ish-season check-up, but close enough.  A quick note about the West, as I don't list teams' current point totals (I'm not going to here for the sake of parity; I didn't for the East), I would like to point out that the Western Conference is absolutely logjammed.  There are two reasons for this: first, Chicago and Anaheim are beating everyone, which leaves the rest of the teams without any points they may have normally collected more points in.  Second, the lion's share of the shootouts that have happened this year have happened in the West.  The result is Gary Bettman's wet dream: Conference wide parity.

There are 11 points separating the second-best team and the third-best team in the West, whereas the is an 8 point spread between 3rd and last.  The East is virtually the polar opposite: 7 separate 2nd and 3rd, while 11 separate 3rd and last.  I don't want to derail this by turning it into a tirade about why the NHL's scoring system is broken, so we'll just leave it there and move on to the standings.

1) Chicago Blackhawks

Pre-season Prediction: 5

What I said: "...[T]he Blackhawks will be good. ... They will benefit from Detroit taking a step back this year."

I would just like to qualify my prediction of fifth by pointing out that I actually predicted that they would be the fourth best team; the Canucks were placed 3rd, but I prefaced that by saying that I felt that Vancouver was not as good as the teams I pegged at 4 and 5.  Looks like I got this one right, but I could never have predicted that through the first half of their schedule, Chicago would have collected at least a point in every game.  An injury to Sharp that will keep him out of the lineup for up to a month may affect them, but nowhere near enough to sink them in the standings in any noticeable way.  It will hurt my fantasy team far more.  Chicago has been so, so good to this point that they are only 10 points out of the projected playoff cutoff through 26 games!

Will they make the playoffs?  Yes (1st).

2) Anaheim Ducks

Pre-season Prediction: 4

What I said: "Boy were the Ducks bad last year.  This year will be different; Perry, Ryan, and Getzlaf are simply too good to be that bad again.  Same goes for Jonas Hiller.  I think that Anaheim will be powerhouses of the West this year, competing with the Kings for the division title."

I do find it odd that so few people believed in the Ducks to start the year.  The club is coming to a crossroads of sorts at this deadline though: with Getzlaf recently re-signed, should Anaheim trade Corey Perry for future assets, or keep him for the playoffs and risk him walking for nothing?  I tend to lean toward them trading him, but I sure wouldn't want to be GM Bob Murray right about now.  The Ducks' underlying numbers say that they're due to regress to the mean a little in the near future; they're a below average FenwickClose team and have the highest PDO in the league.  Those two indicators paired together are why I think the Leafs drop right out of the playoffs, but I'm more hesitant to condemn the Ducks.  11 of their players currently have at least 5 goals, which indicates to me that when some skaters do come down to Earth, Anaheim has enough secondary scoring to keep themselves afloat.  If this were a full 82 game schedule, I would be predicting that Los Angeles would catch up though.

Will they make the playoffs?  Yes (2nd).

3) Vancouver Canucks

Pre-season Prediction:3

What I said: "...A defence that is, while still solid at the top, thinner than it has been in years will see a statistical step back for the back-to-back Presidents Trophy winners.  The second line is in shambles, and if this team can't produce on the powerplay, then it's difficult to call them legitimate Cup contenders."

Didn't I read this exact same sentence last week everywhere this past week...?  I'm fairly impressed with my pre-season assessment for Vancouver.  I did imply that Schnieder would mirror Rask's numbers, which hasn't been the case, but other than that, it's pretty accurate.  I noticed that at the beginning of last season, my Facebook status was "The new CBC scoreboard is everything the Canucks' second line is not", in that the scoreboard was sleek, elegant, visually appealing, functional, effective.  The statement still stands, almost a year and a half later.  The Canucks' PP has been anemic at best, which has been a product of not generating enough shots with the man-advantage.  However, 5-on-5, the Canucks are one of the best teams in the league.  I don't see them moving about in the standing all that much for the rest of the year.

Will they make the playoffs?  Yes (3rd).

4) Los Angeles Kings

Pre-season Prediction: 2

What I said: "The defending Cup champions will be icing essentially the same roster that steamrolled through last year's playoffs.  I enter every single season looking at the West and thinking "Holy shit, the Kings are going to be great this year!", only for them to underachieve, and me not feel anxious about them at all.  I have the same outlook this year, and with Jon Quick being backed up by Jon Bernier, not many goals will be scored against L.A..  This minimises the effect of Kopitar being out of the lineup to begin the season.  Holy shit, the Kings are going to be great this year!"

They underachieved to begin the year, but it was more the product of having wound up on the wrong side of the scoreboard in close games rather than having been outplayed.  The Kings are the best possession team in the league, and they've been climbing the standings steadily over the past month.  Holy shit, the Kings are going to be great for the rest of the year!

Will they make the playoffs?  Yes (4th).

5) St. Louis Blues

Pre-season Prediction: 1

What I said: " I'm not suggesting that Brian Elliot posts the same numbers as last year, but I don't think the regression will be all the way to the mean; his season will be above average.  Ken Hitchcock's defence-first system will be an asset, as Western conference teams traditionally play a less open game than their Eastern counterparts.  Pietrangelo and Shattenkirk patrolling the blueline will help ensure that the defence remains solid.  Look out for Backes to have a monster year."

Well, Brian Elliot has been nothing short of awful, so wrong on that count.  Pietrangelo and Shattenkirk should both be in the Norris conversation, so right on that account.  As for Perron, I... I just don't know why I wrote this.  I don't remember ever feeling particularly strongly about this.  I mean, 20 points in 26 games isn't bad by any means, but it's certainly not a monster year.  I'm just so confused by everything at the moment.  I'm going to now deflect this confusion by pointing out that I had the top 5 teams in the West in my pre-season predictions.  A different order, yes, but I'm still pleased with myself.  L.A. and St. Louis are both tied in points with Vancouver at the moment as well, so I'm just about bang on with saying that Vancouver is the fifth-best team in the league but will place third.  Forget all of that Perron stuff from before, I'm brilliant.

Will they make the playoffs?  Yes (5th).

6) Phoenix Coyotes

Pre-season Prediction: 9

What I said: "It'll be a tough year for the defending Pacific division champions."

Phoenix is a very well disciplined club.  Really nothing stands out about them.  Mike Smith is having a good-but-not-great year.  Shane Doan hasn't been very noticeable.  Yet here they are, contending for a playoff spot.  Based on my pre-season prediction, I'm inclined to say they don't make it, but it's realistic that they should make it in.

Will they make the playoffs?  Yes (8th).

7) Detroit Red Wings

Pre-season Prediction: 6

What I said: " They'll be a tough matchup almost every night, but this is not the season that the Red Wings run away with the West."

Basically bang-on in that prediction.  Through all their changes this year, the Wings are a good team and will still be playing hockey after 48 games.

Will they make the playoffs?  Yes (6th).

8) Minnesota Wild

Pre-season Prediction: 8

What I said: "Twin $98 million contracts to Parise and Suter means the Wild are a better team.  They're not great or anything, but certainly better."

I suppose this is true, but it ignores that the Wild is still a fairly anemic team offensively, and that they haven't been all that great defencively either.  At the moment, they're right there with the Canucks for the division lead, but I mean, technically so is Calgary.  You'll read about them later.  Zach Parise has apparently decided that his last name is now pronounced "pah-ree-zee", because he was getting jealous of Metta World Peace and Chad Ochocinco hogging the weird-name spotlight.

Will they make the playoffs?  No.

9) San Jose Sharks

Pre-season Prediction: 12

What I said: "The once-powerful Sharks are a shell of themselves.  I will be pleased to see this team miss the playoffs.

Boy, were the first seven games of the season frustrating for me.  The Sharks were undefeated and I was feeling bad about my prognosticative powers.  Joe Thornton, probably trying to extend an olive branch to me, probably rallied the locker room to play more poorly just to make me feel better.  Aw, thanks Joe, there may be hope for us after all.  In all seriousness, the Sharks should be able to squeak in, but won't do all that much in the post-season.

Will they make the playoffs?  Yes (7th).

10) Nashville Predators

Pre-season Prediction: 11

What I said: "Am I overrating the effect Ryan Suter's departure will have on this club?  Maybe, but I think that Weber will have a slightly harder time with his new defensive partner, and the fact the Weber seemed intent on getting out of Nashville will be an awkward elephant in the corner until he proves otherwise.  Any team with Rinne in net will be competitive, but the Preds will fall short."

I have not changed my tune about this in the slightest.

Will they make the playoffs?  No.

11) Dallas Stars

Pre-season Prediction: 7

What I said: "For the past two seasons, they have been vying for a playoff spot right up into the last week of the season.  This year has to be playoffs or bust; if they miss this year, it might be time to blow it up."

Ka-boom?  Kari Lehtonen is the most under-appreciated goalie in the league in my opinion.  If he could stay healthy for a whole year, then this team maybe could squeak in.  Unfortunately, he's missed time with an injury already and they've slipped.  Not out of it yet, but it seems as if the Stars will be in for a last-week elimination for a third straight year.  Aaron Rome deserves better.

Will they make the playoffs?  No.

12) Edmonton Oilers

Pre-season Prediction: 10

What I said: "Tons of exciting young players won't be enough to get the Oilers into the playoffs this year.  God, could you imagine if they won the lottery a fourth year in a row?  Because that's a possibility now with the restructured CBA."

Quick, name the Oilers' top scorer.  As of today, it's Sam Gagner.  Not Taylor Hall, who needs to learn how to dial back his intensity.  Not Jordan Eberle, who was bound to see his numbers regress from last year.  Not Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, who has only 2 goals to date.  Not Nail Yakupov, who, actually, he's been really impressive.  The Oilers are (were?) supposed to be the next great team, but management is dropping the ball.  Hall and Eberle come off their entry level deals this summer, and it's starting to look like Gagner might be one of their most vital pieces moving forward.  I'm honestly not sure how their management would react to winning the lottery again; I imagine they would curse a lot, and then work on trading it away.

Will they make the playoffs?  No.

13) Columbus Blue Jackets

Pre-season Prediction: 15

What I said: "When you lose your best player and were already the worst team, you're in trouble.  This isn't Coach Carter on ice."

The Blue Jackets, as it turns out, don't seem to be the worst team in the West.  The Rick Nash trade is starting to look not-atrocious for them, as they acquired a lot of tenacious depth from the Rangers.  Bobrovsky is beginning to seem like a legitimately good goaltender.  They're not a pushover team, but good teams still shouldn't be losing to them.

Will they make the playoffs?  No.

14) Colorado Avalanche

Pre-season Prediction: 13

What I said: "Good young players, but not enough to make an impact.  I do love Landeskog and O'Reilley though."

While Canucks fans belabour the lack of a meaningful second line, the Avalanche have been playing most of the year without their first line.  Steve Downie is out for the year, Landeskog missed time with a concussion, and O'Reilley was involved in a long contract stand-off that was ended only when Jay Feaster blundered in to put an end to it, just not in the way he'd hoped.  I don't have much to say about the bottom third of the West; although they look competitive in the standings, there's no way a team like Colorado makes the postseason.

Will they make the playoffs?  No.

15) Calgary Flames

Pre-season Prediciton: 14

What I said: "I predict that Hudler is a massive bust.  I feel bad for Kipprusoff."

I now ammend this to "I feel bad for Flames fans".  Jay Feaster, in signing O'Reilley to an offer-sheet in an attempt to resemble a team that is competitive, almost lost both the player and the draft pick compensation that the Avanlanche would have received from the deal.  How does that man still have a job?  Kipprusoff has been bad, and doesn't really seem tradeable at this point.  Iginla should be moved and they should hope he comes back this off-season.  Ugh, I just don't want to think about this team; they're just so... Ugh.

Will they make the playoffs?  Hahahaha, oh Tyler, sometimes I crack me up.

NHL midseason check-up: Eastern Conference

Prior to the season, I gave my predictions for both the Eastern and Western conferences.  March 8th marks the mid point of this compressed season, and I wanted to check in on how I was doing with my picks.  We'll progress through this in order of current standings, with a quip from my pre-season predictions, and a brief assessment of how each team is currently doing.

1) Montreal Canadiens
Pre-season Prediction: 13

What I said: "Carey Price is good".

Wow, Tyler, way to really dive in deep with that assessment.  Carey Price has an even strength SV% of .927 this year and has spearheaded the Canadiens turnaround from 15th last year to 1st this year.  I don't think they stay here (Boston is 1 point back with 3 games in hand), but I will readily say I was wrong about this team.  However, I just can't hope for their success, and that has a lot to do with Therrien's no-fun stance on team behaviour, banning Price and Subban's triple high-five following wins.

Do they make the playoffs? Yes (4th).

2) Pittsburgh Penguins
Pre-season Prediction: 4

What I said: "People either grossly overestimate or underestimate the Penguins...  Even if [Fleury] falters, they have Vokoun backing him up; a more than capable goalie".

Well frankly, he's faltering.  But Vokoun isn't really doing all that much better.  Nonetheless, the Penguins are leading their division.  All seems well with a healthy Crosby leading the league in scoring (11-25-36) and Chris Kunitz reaping the benefits of playing alongside him -- Kunitz's on-ice shotting percentage is a ridiculous 14.77%.  The Pens should be fine moving forward for the regular season, but there's a nagging voice in my head that points to games like their 7-6 victory over Montreal as warning signs that all their firepower is hiding a below average defencive team.  They are a positive possession team however, so I feel comfortable saying they'll stick around in the two-hole for the rest of the year.

Do they make the playoffs?  Yes (2nd).

3) Carolina Hurricanes
Pre-season Prediction: 5

What I said: "Cam Ward is the kind of goalie that can get hot for three weeks at any time, and that means much much more in a shortened season".

In my pre-season rankings, I wavered between two teams to win the Southeast; Carolina was neither.  I don't know why, I just felt fifth was an appropriate spot for them; that it would be an even-keeled season for them.  So far, they're making the case that they're the best team in the division, though Cam Ward is now out for 6-8 weeks, so the Hurricanes will turn to Dan Ellis for the remainder of the season to try to secure third place in the East.

Do they make the playoffs?  Yes (3rd).

4) Boston Bruins
Pre-season Prediction: 2

What I said: "The Bruins were also dominant in their own conference last year, and there should be no reason for that to change drastically".

Well, a 14-3-3 record is certainly dominant.  The Bruins are one of only 3 teams to have lost fewer than 5 games in regulation this year -- and the only one from the East.  For all the talk that the Bruins' success derives from their rough style of play (I wasn't entirely innocent of this in my pre-season article; writing that the Bruins' MO is rough play and intimidation), they're the best possession team in the East, and second only to the Kings in that department.  Oh, and having a 95% penalty kill certainly doesn't hurt.  Tukka Rask has been simply amazing as well.  All in all, the Bruins have very quietly put together the toughest out in the playoffs in the Eastern Conference; it'll be a  pity for whomever they meet in the first round.

Do they make the playoffs?  Yes (1st).

5) Toronto Maple Leafs
Pre-season Prediction: 10

What I said: "With Luongo, I see them at seventh".

First off, obviously there's no Luongo.  This season, several things have happened in my head concerning the Leafs:
- I became a fan of Dion Phaneuf.  He plays some of the toughest minutes in the league when you look at who he's played against.  
- There was a brief window where I hoped they'd win every game.  This was because I was briefly using Ben Scrivens on my fantasy team, and I was hoping for wins.
- I have reached the point where I am relishing their inevitable plummet in the standings.

I'm not saying that just because it happened last year; I'm saying that they are playing the way the Minnesota Wild did last year, where they won games they had no business winning in the first half a the season, and then reality caught up with them.  The Leafs are going to regress, make no mistake of that: they have the fourth worst Fenwick-Close% in the league (this is the best proxy stat for puck possession, which correlates better with future success than any other statistic), and the third highest PDO in the league (a quantitative assessment of puck-luck).  They're due to come back down to Earth, and no, it won't be because they traded away Mike Brown.

The Leafs are where they are due to their goaltending, plain and simple.  Unfortunately for Toronto fans, Reimer and Scrivens are not as good as they've been to this point.

This article from Pension Plan Puppets breaks down the Leafs' season and what Carlysle is(n't) doing extremely well...... I'm sorry, I'm rambling a bit now, but the Leafs' are being given far too much praise for what they've been doing.

Do they make the playoffs?  No.

6) Ottawa Senators

Pre-season Prediction: 12

What I said: "I feel they also over-achieved last year, and that resulted in an 8th place finish".

I don't know what to say; Craig Anderson putting up Vezina like numbers goes down to injury, and I wait for this team to drop like a stone.  Erik Karlsson puts up Norris like numbers (I maintain that he shouldn't be in the conversation for the award, but what can you do?), goes down to injury, and I wait for this team to drop like a stone.  Jason Spezza gets lost to injury, and I wait for this team to drop like a stone.  But it hasn't happened.  Colour me officially impressed.

Will they make the playoffs?  Yes (7th).

7) New Jersey Devils

Pre-season Prediction: 10

What I Said: "Over-achieved last year".

They've cooled off recently after a very hot start.  Part of this is Brodeur being injured at the moment, part of it is David Clarkson cooling off a bit after a torrid start, and part of it is the teams they're playing against just being better on some nights.  Common sense tells me they'll stay in the playoff race, but my gut says otherwise.

Will they make the playoffs?  No(?)

8) New York Rangers

Pre-seaon Prediction: 1

What I said: "Provided the roster stays healthy, there's no reason that there shouldn't be an uptick in the Rangers' offence".

The Rangers have struggled, though they're beginning to find their form.  It has become apparent that the Rick Nash trade came at the expense of the Rangers' depth, which means that if the top line isn't producing, then it's all on Lundqvist, who hasn't been as sharp as was expected prior to the season.

Will they make the playoffs?  Yes (5th).

9) Philadelphia Flyers

Pre-season Prediction: 6

What I said: "Claude Giroux is one of the elite players in the league, but I think that he regresses this year, but only slightly".

Hey, I was right with a quip!  Giroux's play has been stellar with Hartnell in the lineup, whereas while Hartnell was injured, he struggled.  A shaky D-corps hasn't helped things, but the Flyers are beginning to round into form.

Will they make the playoffs?  Yes (6th).

10) New York Islanders

Pre-season Prediction: 15

What I said: "Good young players, but just not a great team".

Even a whiff of league-average goaltending.  That's all it would take for the Islanders to be a playoff team.  Tavares and Moulson carry the offence, and will continue to do so.  Visnovsky, though I imagine he'll leave in the offseason, has been perhaps their best defenceman.  Then there's Nabokov.  Sure, he has 10 wins on the year, but he has been bad.  A .902 SV% (.904 at even-strength), and a 2.97 GAA reveals that he's been the beneficiary of the offence in front of him.  The team's save percentage is .882.  I'm rooting for them to squeak into the playoffs.

Will they make the playoffs?  Yes (8th).

11) Winnipeg Jets

Pre-season Prediction: 14

What I said: "Brutal travel in a year that has no inter-conference play.  Likely will be an above average home team, but an atrocious road team".

As it turns out, they're sub-.500 at home, and above on the road.  Huh.  I'm impressed that the Jets are in the conversation for competing for the Southeast division, but with the way that division stacks up to the rest of the East, losing the division also pretty much means missing the playoffs.

Will they make the playoffs?  No.

12) Tampa Bay Lightning

Pre-season Prediction: 7

What I said: "I think that the Lightning should be on the upturn in the next few years, but with it looking more and more likely that Ohlund won't be returning from surgery any time soon (if at all), and Sami Salo's health always a question mark, I don't see them being a powerhouse in the East quite yet".

Ohlund isn't playing.  Salo has played 19 of 23 games (good for him).  Tampa Bay was one of the teams I considered for the Southeast division "crown", before ultimately choosing a team that is currently ranked even lower.  Tampa Bay has a goal differential of +8 (81 GF; 73 GA), the only non-playoff team with that distinction in either conference.  However, those 73 goals against is fourth worst in the league, and they're a negative posession team, and have a high PDO.  So here we are, outside the playoffs once again.

Will they make the playoffs?  No.

13) Buffalo Sabres

Pre-season Prediction: 8

What I said: "Ryan Miller: good to great goalie".

Oh Tyler, it's okay.  Everyone's wrong sometimes.  Miller seems frustrated beyong belief; I imagine he wants out of Buffalo.  The first line of Vanek, Pominville, and Hodgson has been pretty damn good, but other than Ehrhoff, who is having quite the bounce-back year, their roster is barren.  I wouldn't be surprised if they are sellers at the trade deadline and move both Miller and Vanek to begin a rebuild.

Will they make the playoffs?  No.

14) Washington Capitals

Pre-season Prediction: 3

What I said: "The Southeast division is basically up in the air".

That quip is my defence.  At this point, I find it really hard to care about the Capitals.

Will they make the playoffs?  No.

15) Florida Panthers

Pre-season Prediction: 9

What I said: "Only won the division last year because all the other teams were disasters".

Well, the above assessment is correct.  Looking back now, I know I ranked them too highly.  It was because they had won the division; I didn't want to drop them too drastically.  Ah well, hindsight 20/20.  On the positive side, Huberdeau is making a case for being the Calder winner this year.  In the negative side, Weiss is done for the year due to wrist surgery, and that means it will be really hard to trade him for something of value.  He's a free agent after this year, and at this point, is as good as gone.

Will they make the playoffs?  No.

NHL.com and Behind the Net were used to gather data.  If you're curious about PDO and Fenwick-Close, the former is the sum of on ice save percentage and on ice shooting percentage; it tends to regress toward 1000.  Fenwick is a plu-minus metric that uses shots attempted as a proxy for goals (blocked shots are not included, whereas in Corsi ratings, they are).  Expressed as a percentage, it indicates a team's proficiency at controlling play.  "Close" is defined as a tie game, or in the 1st or 2nd of a game within 2 goals.  This sub-category is used to offset the fact that teams tend to direct more shots at the net while they're trailing in an attempt to cut into the lead.

Game Notes: March 5th Canucks vs. Sharks

Pre-Game

- Oh man, I'm so glad that Japandroids won that fan vote for the Canucks entrance song.  On the other end of the spectrum, apparently the Leafs are using Harlem Shake as their goal song...

1st Period

20:00 - Lots of Canucks having kids this week; Burrows had a daughter born last night.

19:26 - Bracken Kearns is an amazing name!

18:40 - Murray must have hated that Higgins attempted a spin shot in tight on him; shoved him down well after the puck left the area

18:00 - Barker and Ballard is a pairing, eh?  Okay then.

14:32 - Thornton misplays the puck at the blue line, leads to a semi-breakaway for Kassian.  If he had scored, it would have led to a benching for Thornton... You know, if he wasn't Joe Thornton.

12:18 - Gomez's first goal as a Shark.  Nice shot.  I think that was the first stoppage of play in 3 or 4 minutes.  Great pace to the game so far.  1-0 Sharks.

11:07 - Edler has had better shifts; gets muscled off the puck in the zone by Brad Stuart (why is he the forechecker?), which leads to a shot attempt that Tanev blocked.  Tanev then left for the dressing room.

10:25 - Gomez looks really good.  Almost set up a goal there; but the shot went wide.

9:39 - Tanev is back to the bench; he goes to stretch out either his hip or foot on the ice as we go to a T.V. time out.

9:06 - Keystone's new slogan is "Why not grab some stones".  Not only is it blatantly ripping off Budweiser, it's also awful.

7:35 - Kassian and Booth do a great job to keep the puck alive in the zone.  There were two instances where Murray could have been called for holding.

6:35 - I'm so sad that Sestito is wearing Rome's number.

5:55 - Sestito is not going to be winning fastest skater at the Canucks Superskills next year.

4:36 - Booth just threw the only Canucks hit I can think of thus far. (Apparently the hits ended 21-19 for the Sharks.  I'm watching a recording of the game, so I couldn't check at the time because it would have spoiled the game.)

3:45 - Niemi makes a save off the mask from a Hamhuis shot.  He's shaking his neck out afterwards.  I would be weeping in relief of still having a head attached to my shoulders.

2:10 - I think Murray has been iffy so far.  There have been several chances in tight on him where he's shaky on his skates, but at the same time, he's in the right lane and isn't being blown by.  So, yeah, not sure what I think.

0:43 - "Whistle went boys!" Clowe and Edler didn't hear the icing whistle.  Neither did I actually.

0:03 - 40 second Sedin shift looked like a power play.  Play stops with a Tanev shot stopped from the point by Niemi.

0:00 - I'm so glad I'm watching this on PVR; Sportsnet doesn't go to a panel for intermission during home games.  Instead, they interview newspaper beat writers.  I just don't understand.

2nd Period

20:00 - Apparently Bracken Kearns' dad played for the Canucks back in the day.  Sportsnet really sells that Dennis Kearns was an old-time player by showing his graphic head shot in black and white.

19:12 - Thornton is over a point per game for his career.  Wow.

18:20 - Tight camera angle in the corner led me to believe that Booth drew a slash against Marleau.  Other way around though; Booth just broke his own stick.  Replay leaves no doubt.

16:35 - The Sharks' first PP unit looks great.  They even had a drop pass zone entry; that's how you know it's good!

15:58 - So the first unit is Thornton, Marleau, Couture, Pavelski, and Boyle.  The second unit is Gomez, Kennedy, Demers, Clowe, and Irwin.

15:16 - Burish scores shorthanded, as the Canucks defencemen were in too deep to recover.  Schieder should have had that though.  2-0 Sharks.

14:55 - Daniel skates himself into the Sharks' net, mistakenly thinking that it might count.  Unfortunately, it didn't.

14:23 - I'm now convinced that Murray is playing well.  He just bowled over Burrows along the boards.

13:10 - I feel like a disproportionate number of players score their first goal of the season against the Canucks.  Both Sharks goals were firsts.  If I could think of a good way to compile those stats, I might, but I can't, so I'm sticking to my gut feeling that this is correct.

10:06 - Sestito and Handzus are shoving on the draw.  Wasn't it against the Sharks that there was a scrum off the opening draw and Hansen cross-checked a ref?  Yep.  Still not sure how he didn't at least get a talking to for that.

9:33 - Barker's facial expression always seems a little vacant.

7:23 - Gomez looks fantastic.  He's everywhere on the ice in this one.

6:37 - Henrik scores as the puck got lost off a Shark and Henrik in front.  Niemi had no chance, as the puck dropped right onto Henrik's stick.  2-1 Sharks.

3:25 - Niemi takes another one off the mask.

2:05 - The Sharks' neutral zone defencive play is tight.

0:55 - Hansen, Raymond, and Higgins have been by far the best Canucks line for the past 3 games.

0:24 - A great shift from them ends with Hansen scoring to tie the game.  Higgins gets Niemi looking the wrong way with a perfectly timed screen.  2-2.

0:05 - Booth's hair.

0:00 - Hansen has been great so far, but his on-ice shooting percentage so far is 13.33%.  That's not sustainable.  And two of his goals have been from behind the net.  Nonetheless, he's been arguably the best Canuck this year, just don't go picking him up in your fantasy league.

3rd Period

17:40 - Look, I get it if you fall over another player, that's just incidental contact, but if you then lie on top of him for the next 8 seconds, isn't that then interference?  No?  Okay then.

16:53 - Lapierre goes down and Kearns throws his hands up exasperatedly.  Thankfully for him, there's no call.  I think Lapierre might have tripped on the puck.  The fans don't like the non-call, but it's probably the right call.

16:14 - Shorthouse and Garrett bemoan having to go to Columbus.  Way to sell the upcoming game, guys.

15:40 - First time I've noticed Barker since the first.

13:19 - Pavelski has an all white stick.  I like it a lot.

10:45 - Fans do the wave while players battle for the puck along the boards.  The third hasn't been as up-tempo as the first two periods.

9:52 - Higgins deflected a Sharks shot that almost went in.  Schnieder made a difficult blocker save there.  Yikes!

9:40 - Sportsnet has the scoring chances 13-6 Vancouver.  Play like this will lead to leads more often than not.  (The scoring chances finished 19-11 Vancouver.  Thanks to Canucks Army for the scoring chance data.)

7:56 - Barker turned the puck over into the slot, which led to a Couture wrist shot.  Schnieder with a nice glove save.  That was one of the Sharks 5 scoring chances through the rest of the game.

6:34 - Raymond took a hard swipe to the ankles from Sheppard.  Cancuks to the PP, and it's not Raymond's fault he fell down this time.

4:13 - After great pressure from the Canucks on the PP, Marleau is hooked as he slides the puck wide.  The Sharks to the PP now (it was called holding - okay then).  It would have been devastating if Marleau has scored there with the way the Canucks have been carrying the play.

4:13 - Replay shows that Stuart was hit in the face by a puck during the last PP.  Jeez, I'm glad he's okay, given that this happened to Marc Staal on the same night.  What has to happen for visors to be mandatory?

3:17 - It was just announced that Ballard will not return due to a lower body injury.  I'm not sure when it happened.  Regardless, with Edler also in the box, the Canucks are down to 4 defencemen on this kill.

2:48 - Clowe somehow didn't score.  Empty cage with Schnieder diving across.  Cam Barker blocked it.

0:54 - Garrison hit the post, and it looks like overtime is coming.  Could really use Bieksa and a stanchion right about now.

0:00 - Just Cam Barker looking vacant again.  But it's okay - if he's blocking sure goals, he can wear whatever facial expression he wants.

Overtime

4:50 - Boyle turned the wrong way as Daniel moved into the zone.  Nothing came of it.

3:26 - Gomez gets called for goalie interference, although he was actually pushed in by Raymond.  That's a rough call for San Jose.

1:57 - Henrik gets hit by Edler's slapshot.  Play stops, but he's okay.  Looks like it got him right in the mouth.

0:54 - Please score, the shootout blows.

0:04 - Henrik back out for the last shift.  He's a machine.  He beats Thornton off the draw, Edler gets a shot off, Niemi makes the save, and I bang my head against the table, as we're off to a shootout.

Shootout

- I hope Gomez gets to shoot.  He's been by far my favourite Shark tonight.  Weird...

- Higgins to start things off.  Beats Niemi glove side after coming in from the left.  Niemi should have had that.

- Hansen's first shootout attempt ever.  Fake shot, to backhand, stopped.  Dubbed the Harry Potter deke by Garrett.

- Couture scored to extend it.  Backhand 5-hole.

- Burrows also does the HP.

- Pavelski wins it with a wrister.  I'm telling you, it's the white stick; the goalie can't see the release as well.

School Skills 101: The Schedule

We're approaching the one-month mark of the semester, are you starting to burn out yet?  Yeah, I thought so.  It's tiring, your university lifestyle, what with all your frat hijinks, and the binge drinking.  By now, you've probably met your crush for the year; the first meeting was in the coffee line, right?  He or she accidently bumped into you as he or she was leaving, and looked up to apologize, and as a smile slowly grew across his or her face, light-hearted music softly swelled in your head.

Guru tip: It was probably from your iPod.

Presently, the two of you have developped a strong chemistry, but neither of you has had the gall to admit your feelings to the other; can't give away the climax too early.  With all that going on, who has the time for classes?

It's almost as if university-set movies pay no attention to that part.

Never fear, your guru is here to help you henceforth.  Beginning next semester, you will never again have to worry about your schedule interfering with what college is really about.  I must point out that my perception of 'what university is really about' has come about because my schedule is allowing me to watch copious amounts of college movies.  It's....... probably great, or perhaps horrifically depressing.  Anyhow...

Guru Tip #1:  Register as Normal

To achieve the perfect schedule, one cannot set out to do so.  Copy that sentence down, and tape it up on your laptop when you are going to register.  I know, it seems counter-intuitive, but trust me, it will work out. Register for the classes that sound interesting to you.  Try to group together those classes so they're bunched together as one block, preferably only on a couple of days per week.  Now, walk away from the laptop.

Guru Tip #2:  Get a Bad Feeling While Working on a Term Project

Now, your hypothetical schedule might look like this:  Mondays and Wednesdays, 10:30-4:30, comprising three classes.  Well done, it's almost complete.  Now, you're procrastinating on your English term paper the night before it's due (if you need tips on procrastination, check out that lesson - it will help you have more productive procrastination), and you get a bad feeling.  Load up your schedule preview.  You made a mistake, didn't you?  That's okay, guru here to let you know it's all part of the process.

So you registered for the same English class that you're currently working on.  It's the middle of your three classes.  The key here is to prioritize: immediately stop working on the essay that is due in 8 hours, and begin scouring the list of classes for a replacement.

Guru Tip #3:  Choose the Right Replacement

Here is where the skill portion of scheduling begins.  While before, you chose classes based on ones that you wanted to do; this time, however, you will be selecting based entirely on when the class meets.  By now, you've sold yourself on having school only two days a week; we don`t want to wreck that.  We're looking for a class that is also Mondays and Wednesdays, from 12:30-2:30.  If you find it, register.  If it has a waitlist, get on it.

Guru Tip #3 (a): The Waitlist

If you're on a waitlist for that replacement class, also register for GIS class as a backup, just in case you don't make it into the regular class.

Guru Tip #4:  Reap the Benefits of a Four Day Weekend

Either way your replacement has shaken down, you only have school on Mondays and Wednesdays.  Enjoy the four day weekend; I assume you're going to use it for more college hijinks.  Make sure that you take some time out of that to read up on my lesson on study sheets, you know, just to get ahead of the curve come exam time.

Until next time, class dismissed.

The narratology of sports

Why do people like sports?  I have several theories: they enjoy the competition; escapism; they're economic behemoths.  I will always watch sports highlights - this is because I will never tire of watching people performing something exceptionally well.  But the reason above all else that I enjoy sports is because I think they're narratologically fascinating.  The storylines that play out in professional sports are incredible - sometimes because they truly are incredible, and sometimes because it's incredible that the storyline has been created.

If you're a fan of hockey, think back to the 2011 Stanley Cup Finals, and how the narrative of Roberto Luongo vs. Tim Thomas was made.  It was fabricated off of one Luongo quote, the (for some reason) infamous "Pumping his tires" quote.  When asked about the game winning goal from Game 2, Luongo replied that it would have been an easy save for him.  And then the media promptly exploded.  It was the most innocuous of quotes; one that had nothing to do with Thomas, and one that had everything to do with the fact that the Canucks' season narrative had been that Luongo was being forced to play further back in his net due to his new goalie coach wanting him to adjust his style.  From there, every goal that beat Luongo where he wasn't above the top of the crease was chalked up to his "new style".  The goal in question, was a hyperbolic example of a goalie being out of position, so Luongo's comment was poking fun at the Vancouver media.  Due to needing something to write about on non-game days, the media took the quote and ran with it, saying that Luongo was being disrespectful of Thomas, which led to Luongo saying "I've been pumping his tires since the series started."

I think that the whole situation was ridiculous, but very interesting.  Sports narratives are versatile too; they don't apply across the board.  I was part of a conversation online recently regarding the Blue Jays and Marlins trade.  Of the four major North American sports, baseball is the one I am the least knowledgeable about, followed by football, and then I'm well versed in NHL and NBA happenings.  Well someone wrote that they thought the trade was bogus because Miami had traded away good players for monetary reasons, and not, as he said "for baseball reasons".  This struck me as very odd, because, to my mind at least, the two are entirely interconnected.  Professional sports function entirely due to economic reasons, so why should a franchise making a financial decision be invalid?  His opinion was far from unique, it was one I read about several times, despite not having any insight into the fairness of the trade.  I couldn't help but to interject myself into the debate by likening that trade to another one that had happened just a couple months earlier: James Harden's departure from Oklahoma City.  The Thunder traded away a key player because they would have had to pay a luxury tax next year had they kept him.  End of story.  The trade was entirely economic in motive.  Yet no one was up in arms about its validity.  Sure, people lamented that the Thunder didn't suck it up and pay the tax, but everyone understood why it happened.  This disconnect in justification is something I just don't understand.

The most captivating game of the whole NBA season thus far has been the San Antonio Spurs playing the Miami Heat, wherein Spurs coach Gregg Popovich sent his top four players home prior to the game to rest them.  The NBA commissioner, David Stern, announced that serious consequences would befall the Spurs for doing a disservice to the League.  The rationale was that the Spurs benching their stars was Popovich deciding to throw the game.  Stern announced this several hours before the game.  The fact is, Stern was upset because it was a nationally televised game.  End of story.  What unfolded was a basketball game pitting the defending champions against San Antonio's bench, and I couldn't look away.  It was incredible.  Would it have been without Stern's ill-timed comment?  Probably not.  It would have just been a game that was close, in which the Spurs sat their veterans.

I write this, not because I have a definitive thesis on the narratology of sports and what it means, but because I don't want to deal with Canucks fans who will inevitably get caught up in the Luongo vs. Schnieder narrative.  Schnieder's first game as "official starter" went poorly, and at the end of the second period, a CBC poll showed 64% of voters wanted Luongo to start tonight's game against Edmonton.  I implore you, if you are a fan of hockey, just a fan of the Canucks, a Vancouverite who has a vague understanding of the goings-on of hockey, or one who hates hockey and loves reminding people of how stupid the enjoyment other people derive from it is, don't buy in to this narrative.  I've long maintained that Vancouver has some of the worst hockey fans, and I hope that you do a little to prove me wrong.  If you watched the season opener against Anaheim, you would know that goaltending was not the only problem, nor, I would argue, was it the primary problem.  So please, just don't.  I will profoundly enjoy the fact that sports narratives exist, and I am interested to see how this one plays out, but that doesn't mean that I want you to ask me what I think about the idea of the Canucks trading Luongo now.  It will exasperate me, and I don't really want that right now.  Thank you.

Glow Bowling

When I was younger, there was no birthday party at a higher premium than glow bowling.  The walk down the stairs at The Ridge, leading to the blacklit lanes were euphoric, causing us all to grin like idiots.  This in turn caused us to grin even more when you noticed your friends' teeth glowing, like some sort of psychedelic vampire.

It could have just been a big, empty room with the blacklights, and we would have still probably enjoyed it.  Throw in the bowling, and it became perfection.  A quantifiable way to compete against your friends?  There's simply nothing better.

The proverbial victory lap after throwing a strike or a spare was a mad dash back to the scoring booth to witness the screen flash its neon X or /, validating your accomplishments.  The best I ever bowled there was a 196 (let's just gloss over that time I got 66...).

I'm jealous of him.

Flash forward to the recent past: The Ridge is closing.  A friend's birthday is coming up and glow bowling is the plan.  I enter Grandview Lanes for the first time; to me, glow bowling had been synonymous with The Ridge; the first few steps in are eerily surreal.  Though the birthday girl is in her late 20s, little has changed in the allure.  Selecting clothes that will blind your peers, highlighters to draw on everyone within arm's reach (there is a higher quota of penis drawings now than in the past, I notice), it's still the same except for the availability of liquor.  The bowling is tangential to the experience this time, and I suspect again that were it just a blacklit room, no one would notice.  I feel more like a kid than I have in some time.  It's a nice feeling.

Birthday parties have passed me by; I'm still in the days of bowling parties, while the norm is now clubbing.  I'm perfectly happy going to other people's birthday parties, more than that, I enjoy it a lot.  But as for my own, I don't remember what the last birthday party I had was (conceivably, it could have been glow bowling).  All I want to do on my birthday is chill out, have some nice food, and have a conversation with kid-Tyler about how things are going.  I imagine this year he'll show up glowing under a personal blacklight, white t-shirt beaming brighter than any birthday candles could.  Maybe I'll take him bowling.

To borrow from a poet I like, Temporary, The Ridge.  And happy birthday Summer, thanks for making me feel like a kid briefly.

An open letter to that teacher you dislike

And so begins the semester of hate.

Look. I get it that you don't want cell phones being a distraction in your class, but you seem to have a genuine hate-on for technology.  What do you mean you don't check for or respond to student e-mail?  Do you realize that's just a reality of your profession in this day and age?

Speaking of your profession, you're an English teacher; if you want to patronize me on day one by saying "You do all know what a metaphor is, right?", then be sure not to turn to the white board and write down "Her eyes are like stars".  This is not the first impression you want to set.  Mixing up similes and metaphors is something you're supposed to correct, not do.  If I were to describe you with a metaphor, I would say you are like a buffoon.

Back to your technology rage, I get it when you lament the disappearance of independent magazines.  The Internet has not been kind to the medium, and that sucks.  I mean, look at me, I'm using a free online blogging website; why would I bother going through a middle man if I were a writer?  It is sad, it really is.  But you lost me from your side a few minutes later.

I'll fill everyone else in for context.  So there you are, lamenting the fall of indy-mags, saying they were the training grounds upon which fiction writers used to cut their teeth and hone their craft, then you say "Can you even name a successful contemporary fiction writer?"  To me, it seemed obvious, and apparently it was, because the entire class, as one voice, responded J.K. Rowling, because d'uh.

I won't get into it here, because Harry Potter deserves many posts all its own, but I will just say, yes, that was an appropriate answer to your question.

...Yet you hesitated.  And said "Well, it's a bit different when you're writing for something to be turned into a movie".

BOOM!  My head exploded with uncomprehending rage.

Mark my words, I will ace your class just out of spite.  Maybe I'll send you passive aggressive e-mails every day as well, that you'll eventually discover when you realize that it's part of your duties as an instructor now.