There are 11 points separating the second-best team and the third-best team in the West, whereas the is an 8 point spread between 3rd and last. The East is virtually the polar opposite: 7 separate 2nd and 3rd, while 11 separate 3rd and last. I don't want to derail this by turning it into a tirade about why the NHL's scoring system is broken, so we'll just leave it there and move on to the standings.
1) Chicago Blackhawks
Pre-season Prediction: 5
What I said: "...[T]he Blackhawks will be good. ... They will benefit from Detroit taking a step back this year."
I would just like to qualify my prediction of fifth by pointing out that I actually predicted that they would be the fourth best team; the Canucks were placed 3rd, but I prefaced that by saying that I felt that Vancouver was not as good as the teams I pegged at 4 and 5. Looks like I got this one right, but I could never have predicted that through the first half of their schedule, Chicago would have collected at least a point in every game. An injury to Sharp that will keep him out of the lineup for up to a month may affect them, but nowhere near enough to sink them in the standings in any noticeable way. It will hurt my fantasy team far more. Chicago has been so, so good to this point that they are only 10 points out of the projected playoff cutoff through 26 games!
Will they make the playoffs? Yes (1st).
2) Anaheim Ducks
Pre-season Prediction: 4
What I said: "Boy were the Ducks bad last year. This year will be different; Perry, Ryan, and Getzlaf are simply too good to be that bad again. Same goes for Jonas Hiller. I think that Anaheim will be powerhouses of the West this year, competing with the Kings for the division title."
I do find it odd that so few people believed in the Ducks to start the year. The club is coming to a crossroads of sorts at this deadline though: with Getzlaf recently re-signed, should Anaheim trade Corey Perry for future assets, or keep him for the playoffs and risk him walking for nothing? I tend to lean toward them trading him, but I sure wouldn't want to be GM Bob Murray right about now. The Ducks' underlying numbers say that they're due to regress to the mean a little in the near future; they're a below average FenwickClose team and have the highest PDO in the league. Those two indicators paired together are why I think the Leafs drop right out of the playoffs, but I'm more hesitant to condemn the Ducks. 11 of their players currently have at least 5 goals, which indicates to me that when some skaters do come down to Earth, Anaheim has enough secondary scoring to keep themselves afloat. If this were a full 82 game schedule, I would be predicting that Los Angeles would catch up though.
Will they make the playoffs? Yes (2nd).
3) Vancouver Canucks
Pre-season Prediction:3
What I said: "...A defence that is, while still solid at the top, thinner than it has been in years will see a statistical step back for the back-to-back Presidents Trophy winners. The second line is in shambles, and if this team can't produce on the powerplay, then it's difficult to call them legitimate Cup contenders."
Didn't I read this exact same sentence last week everywhere this past week...? I'm fairly impressed with my pre-season assessment for Vancouver. I did imply that Schnieder would mirror Rask's numbers, which hasn't been the case, but other than that, it's pretty accurate. I noticed that at the beginning of last season, my Facebook status was "The new CBC scoreboard is everything the Canucks' second line is not", in that the scoreboard was sleek, elegant, visually appealing, functional, effective. The statement still stands, almost a year and a half later. The Canucks' PP has been anemic at best, which has been a product of not generating enough shots with the man-advantage. However, 5-on-5, the Canucks are one of the best teams in the league. I don't see them moving about in the standing all that much for the rest of the year.
Will they make the playoffs? Yes (3rd).
4) Los Angeles Kings
Pre-season Prediction: 2
What I said: "The defending Cup champions will be icing essentially the same roster that steamrolled through last year's playoffs. I enter every single season looking at the West and thinking "Holy shit, the Kings are going to be great this year!", only for them to underachieve, and me not feel anxious about them at all. I have the same outlook this year, and with Jon Quick being backed up by Jon Bernier, not many goals will be scored against L.A.. This minimises the effect of Kopitar being out of the lineup to begin the season. Holy shit, the Kings are going to be great this year!"
They underachieved to begin the year, but it was more the product of having wound up on the wrong side of the scoreboard in close games rather than having been outplayed. The Kings are the best possession team in the league, and they've been climbing the standings steadily over the past month. Holy shit, the Kings are going to be great for the rest of the year!
Will they make the playoffs? Yes (4th).
5) St. Louis Blues
Pre-season Prediction: 1
What I said: " I'm not suggesting that Brian Elliot posts the same numbers as last year, but I don't think the regression will be all the way to the mean; his season will be above average. Ken Hitchcock's defence-first system will be an asset, as Western conference teams traditionally play a less open game than their Eastern counterparts. Pietrangelo and Shattenkirk patrolling the blueline will help ensure that the defence remains solid. Look out for Backes to have a monster year."
Well, Brian Elliot has been nothing short of awful, so wrong on that count. Pietrangelo and Shattenkirk should both be in the Norris conversation, so right on that account. As for Perron, I... I just don't know why I wrote this. I don't remember ever feeling particularly strongly about this. I mean, 20 points in 26 games isn't bad by any means, but it's certainly not a monster year. I'm just so confused by everything at the moment. I'm going to now deflect this confusion by pointing out that I had the top 5 teams in the West in my pre-season predictions. A different order, yes, but I'm still pleased with myself. L.A. and St. Louis are both tied in points with Vancouver at the moment as well, so I'm just about bang on with saying that Vancouver is the fifth-best team in the league but will place third. Forget all of that Perron stuff from before, I'm brilliant.
Will they make the playoffs? Yes (5th).
6) Phoenix Coyotes
Pre-season Prediction: 9
What I said: "It'll be a tough year for the defending Pacific division champions."
Phoenix is a very well disciplined club. Really nothing stands out about them. Mike Smith is having a good-but-not-great year. Shane Doan hasn't been very noticeable. Yet here they are, contending for a playoff spot. Based on my pre-season prediction, I'm inclined to say they don't make it, but it's realistic that they should make it in.
Will they make the playoffs? Yes (8th).
7) Detroit Red Wings
Pre-season Prediction: 6
What I said: " They'll be a tough matchup almost every night, but this is not the season that the Red Wings run away with the West."
Basically bang-on in that prediction. Through all their changes this year, the Wings are a good team and will still be playing hockey after 48 games.
Will they make the playoffs? Yes (6th).
8) Minnesota Wild
Pre-season Prediction: 8
What I said: "Twin $98 million contracts to Parise and Suter means the Wild are a better team. They're not great or anything, but certainly better."
I suppose this is true, but it ignores that the Wild is still a fairly anemic team offensively, and that they haven't been all that great defencively either. At the moment, they're right there with the Canucks for the division lead, but I mean, technically so is Calgary. You'll read about them later. Zach Parise has apparently decided that his last name is now pronounced "pah-ree-zee", because he was getting jealous of Metta World Peace and Chad Ochocinco hogging the weird-name spotlight.
Will they make the playoffs? No.
9) San Jose Sharks
Pre-season Prediction: 12
What I said: "The once-powerful Sharks are a shell of themselves. I will be pleased to see this team miss the playoffs.
Boy, were the first seven games of the season frustrating for me. The Sharks were undefeated and I was feeling bad about my prognosticative powers. Joe Thornton, probably trying to extend an olive branch to me, probably rallied the locker room to play more poorly just to make me feel better. Aw, thanks Joe, there may be hope for us after all. In all seriousness, the Sharks should be able to squeak in, but won't do all that much in the post-season.
Will they make the playoffs? Yes (7th).
10) Nashville Predators
Pre-season Prediction: 11
What I said: "Am I overrating the effect Ryan Suter's departure will have on this club? Maybe, but I think that Weber will have a slightly harder time with his new defensive partner, and the fact the Weber seemed intent on getting out of Nashville will be an awkward elephant in the corner until he proves otherwise. Any team with Rinne in net will be competitive, but the Preds will fall short."
I have not changed my tune about this in the slightest.
Will they make the playoffs? No.
11) Dallas Stars
Pre-season Prediction: 7
What I said: "For the past two seasons, they have been vying for a playoff spot right up into the last week of the season. This year has to be playoffs or bust; if they miss this year, it might be time to blow it up."
Ka-boom? Kari Lehtonen is the most under-appreciated goalie in the league in my opinion. If he could stay healthy for a whole year, then this team maybe could squeak in. Unfortunately, he's missed time with an injury already and they've slipped. Not out of it yet, but it seems as if the Stars will be in for a last-week elimination for a third straight year. Aaron Rome deserves better.
Will they make the playoffs? No.
12) Edmonton Oilers
Pre-season Prediction: 10
What I said: "Tons of exciting young players won't be enough to get the Oilers into the playoffs this year. God, could you imagine if they won the lottery a fourth year in a row? Because that's a possibility now with the restructured CBA."
Quick, name the Oilers' top scorer. As of today, it's Sam Gagner. Not Taylor Hall, who needs to learn how to dial back his intensity. Not Jordan Eberle, who was bound to see his numbers regress from last year. Not Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, who has only 2 goals to date. Not Nail Yakupov, who, actually, he's been really impressive. The Oilers are (were?) supposed to be the next great team, but management is dropping the ball. Hall and Eberle come off their entry level deals this summer, and it's starting to look like Gagner might be one of their most vital pieces moving forward. I'm honestly not sure how their management would react to winning the lottery again; I imagine they would curse a lot, and then work on trading it away.
Will they make the playoffs? No.
13) Columbus Blue Jackets
Pre-season Prediction: 15
What I said: "When you lose your best player and were already the worst team, you're in trouble. This isn't Coach Carter on ice."
The Blue Jackets, as it turns out, don't seem to be the worst team in the West. The Rick Nash trade is starting to look not-atrocious for them, as they acquired a lot of tenacious depth from the Rangers. Bobrovsky is beginning to seem like a legitimately good goaltender. They're not a pushover team, but good teams still shouldn't be losing to them.
Will they make the playoffs? No.
14) Colorado Avalanche
Pre-season Prediction: 13
What I said: "Good young players, but not enough to make an impact. I do love Landeskog and O'Reilley though."
While Canucks fans belabour the lack of a meaningful second line, the Avalanche have been playing most of the year without their first line. Steve Downie is out for the year, Landeskog missed time with a concussion, and O'Reilley was involved in a long contract stand-off that was ended only when Jay Feaster blundered in to put an end to it, just not in the way he'd hoped. I don't have much to say about the bottom third of the West; although they look competitive in the standings, there's no way a team like Colorado makes the postseason.
Will they make the playoffs? No.
15) Calgary Flames
Pre-season Prediciton: 14
What I said: "I predict that Hudler is a massive bust. I feel bad for Kipprusoff."
I now ammend this to "I feel bad for Flames fans". Jay Feaster, in signing O'Reilley to an offer-sheet in an attempt to resemble a team that is competitive, almost lost both the player and the draft pick compensation that the Avanlanche would have received from the deal. How does that man still have a job? Kipprusoff has been bad, and doesn't really seem tradeable at this point. Iginla should be moved and they should hope he comes back this off-season. Ugh, I just don't want to think about this team; they're just so... Ugh.
Will they make the playoffs? Hahahaha, oh Tyler, sometimes I crack me up.
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