Thursday, 7 March 2013

NHL midseason check-up: Eastern Conference

Prior to the season, I gave my predictions for both the Eastern and Western conferences.  March 8th marks the mid point of this compressed season, and I wanted to check in on how I was doing with my picks.  We'll progress through this in order of current standings, with a quip from my pre-season predictions, and a brief assessment of how each team is currently doing.

1) Montreal Canadiens
Pre-season Prediction: 13

What I said: "Carey Price is good".

Wow, Tyler, way to really dive in deep with that assessment.  Carey Price has an even strength SV% of .927 this year and has spearheaded the Canadiens turnaround from 15th last year to 1st this year.  I don't think they stay here (Boston is 1 point back with 3 games in hand), but I will readily say I was wrong about this team.  However, I just can't hope for their success, and that has a lot to do with Therrien's no-fun stance on team behaviour, banning Price and Subban's triple high-five following wins.

Do they make the playoffs? Yes (4th).

2) Pittsburgh Penguins
Pre-season Prediction: 4

What I said: "People either grossly overestimate or underestimate the Penguins...  Even if [Fleury] falters, they have Vokoun backing him up; a more than capable goalie".

Well frankly, he's faltering.  But Vokoun isn't really doing all that much better.  Nonetheless, the Penguins are leading their division.  All seems well with a healthy Crosby leading the league in scoring (11-25-36) and Chris Kunitz reaping the benefits of playing alongside him -- Kunitz's on-ice shotting percentage is a ridiculous 14.77%.  The Pens should be fine moving forward for the regular season, but there's a nagging voice in my head that points to games like their 7-6 victory over Montreal as warning signs that all their firepower is hiding a below average defencive team.  They are a positive possession team however, so I feel comfortable saying they'll stick around in the two-hole for the rest of the year.

Do they make the playoffs?  Yes (2nd).

3) Carolina Hurricanes
Pre-season Prediction: 5

What I said: "Cam Ward is the kind of goalie that can get hot for three weeks at any time, and that means much much more in a shortened season".

In my pre-season rankings, I wavered between two teams to win the Southeast; Carolina was neither.  I don't know why, I just felt fifth was an appropriate spot for them; that it would be an even-keeled season for them.  So far, they're making the case that they're the best team in the division, though Cam Ward is now out for 6-8 weeks, so the Hurricanes will turn to Dan Ellis for the remainder of the season to try to secure third place in the East.

Do they make the playoffs?  Yes (3rd).

4) Boston Bruins
Pre-season Prediction: 2

What I said: "The Bruins were also dominant in their own conference last year, and there should be no reason for that to change drastically".

Well, a 14-3-3 record is certainly dominant.  The Bruins are one of only 3 teams to have lost fewer than 5 games in regulation this year -- and the only one from the East.  For all the talk that the Bruins' success derives from their rough style of play (I wasn't entirely innocent of this in my pre-season article; writing that the Bruins' MO is rough play and intimidation), they're the best possession team in the East, and second only to the Kings in that department.  Oh, and having a 95% penalty kill certainly doesn't hurt.  Tukka Rask has been simply amazing as well.  All in all, the Bruins have very quietly put together the toughest out in the playoffs in the Eastern Conference; it'll be a  pity for whomever they meet in the first round.

Do they make the playoffs?  Yes (1st).

5) Toronto Maple Leafs
Pre-season Prediction: 10

What I said: "With Luongo, I see them at seventh".

First off, obviously there's no Luongo.  This season, several things have happened in my head concerning the Leafs:
- I became a fan of Dion Phaneuf.  He plays some of the toughest minutes in the league when you look at who he's played against.  
- There was a brief window where I hoped they'd win every game.  This was because I was briefly using Ben Scrivens on my fantasy team, and I was hoping for wins.
- I have reached the point where I am relishing their inevitable plummet in the standings.

I'm not saying that just because it happened last year; I'm saying that they are playing the way the Minnesota Wild did last year, where they won games they had no business winning in the first half a the season, and then reality caught up with them.  The Leafs are going to regress, make no mistake of that: they have the fourth worst Fenwick-Close% in the league (this is the best proxy stat for puck possession, which correlates better with future success than any other statistic), and the third highest PDO in the league (a quantitative assessment of puck-luck).  They're due to come back down to Earth, and no, it won't be because they traded away Mike Brown.

The Leafs are where they are due to their goaltending, plain and simple.  Unfortunately for Toronto fans, Reimer and Scrivens are not as good as they've been to this point.

This article from Pension Plan Puppets breaks down the Leafs' season and what Carlysle is(n't) doing extremely well...... I'm sorry, I'm rambling a bit now, but the Leafs' are being given far too much praise for what they've been doing.

Do they make the playoffs?  No.

6) Ottawa Senators
Pre-season Prediction: 12

What I said: "I feel they also over-achieved last year, and that resulted in an 8th place finish".

I don't know what to say; Craig Anderson putting up Vezina like numbers goes down to injury, and I wait for this team to drop like a stone.  Erik Karlsson puts up Norris like numbers (I maintain that he shouldn't be in the conversation for the award, but what can you do?), goes down to injury, and I wait for this team to drop like a stone.  Jason Spezza gets lost to injury, and I wait for this team to drop like a stone.  But it hasn't happened.  Colour me officially impressed.

Will they make the playoffs?  Yes (7th).

7) New Jersey Devils
Pre-season Prediction: 10

What I Said: "Over-achieved last year".

They've cooled off recently after a very hot start.  Part of this is Brodeur being injured at the moment, part of it is David Clarkson cooling off a bit after a torrid start, and part of it is the teams they're playing against just being better on some nights.  Common sense tells me they'll stay in the playoff race, but my gut says otherwise.

Will they make the playoffs?  No(?)

8) New York Rangers
Pre-seaon Prediction: 1

What I said: "Provided the roster stays healthy, there's no reason that there shouldn't be an uptick in the Rangers' offence".

The Rangers have struggled, though they're beginning to find their form.  It has become apparent that the Rick Nash trade came at the expense of the Rangers' depth, which means that if the top line isn't producing, then it's all on Lundqvist, who hasn't been as sharp as was expected prior to the season.

Will they make the playoffs?  Yes (5th).

9) Philadelphia Flyers
Pre-season Prediction: 6

What I said: "Claude Giroux is one of the elite players in the league, but I think that he regresses this year, but only slightly".

Hey, I was right with a quip!  Giroux's play has been stellar with Hartnell in the lineup, whereas while Hartnell was injured, he struggled.  A shaky D-corps hasn't helped things, but the Flyers are beginning to round into form.

Will they make the playoffs?  Yes (6th).

10) New York Islanders
Pre-season Prediction: 15

What I said: "Good young players, but just not a great team".

Even a whiff of league-average goaltending.  That's all it would take for the Islanders to be a playoff team.  Tavares and Moulson carry the offence, and will continue to do so.  Visnovsky, though I imagine he'll leave in the offseason, has been perhaps their best defenceman.  Then there's Nabokov.  Sure, he has 10 wins on the year, but he has been bad.  A .902 SV% (.904 at even-strength), and a 2.97 GAA reveals that he's been the beneficiary of the offence in front of him.  The team's save percentage is .882.  I'm rooting for them to squeak into the playoffs.

Will they make the playoffs?  Yes (8th).

11) Winnipeg Jets
Pre-season Prediction: 14

What I said: "Brutal travel in a year that has no inter-conference play.  Likely will be an above average home team, but an atrocious road team".

As it turns out, they're sub-.500 at home, and above on the road.  Huh.  I'm impressed that the Jets are in the conversation for competing for the Southeast division, but with the way that division stacks up to the rest of the East, losing the division also pretty much means missing the playoffs.

Will they make the playoffs?  No.

12) Tampa Bay Lightning
Pre-season Prediction: 7

What I said: "I think that the Lightning should be on the upturn in the next few years, but with it looking more and more likely that Ohlund won't be returning from surgery any time soon (if at all), and Sami Salo's health always a question mark, I don't see them being a powerhouse in the East quite yet".

Ohlund isn't playing.  Salo has played 19 of 23 games (good for him).  Tampa Bay was one of the teams I considered for the Southeast division "crown", before ultimately choosing a team that is currently ranked even lower.  Tampa Bay has a goal differential of +8 (81 GF; 73 GA), the only non-playoff team with that distinction in either conference.  However, those 73 goals against is fourth worst in the league, and they're a negative posession team, and have a high PDO.  So here we are, outside the playoffs once again.

Will they make the playoffs?  No.

13) Buffalo Sabres
Pre-season Prediction: 8

What I said: "Ryan Miller: good to great goalie".

Oh Tyler, it's okay.  Everyone's wrong sometimes.  Miller seems frustrated beyong belief; I imagine he wants out of Buffalo.  The first line of Vanek, Pominville, and Hodgson has been pretty damn good, but other than Ehrhoff, who is having quite the bounce-back year, their roster is barren.  I wouldn't be surprised if they are sellers at the trade deadline and move both Miller and Vanek to begin a rebuild.

Will they make the playoffs?  No.

14) Washington Capitals
Pre-season Prediction: 3

What I said: "The Southeast division is basically up in the air".

That quip is my defence.  At this point, I find it really hard to care about the Capitals.

Will they make the playoffs?  No.

15) Florida Panthers
Pre-season Prediction: 9

What I said: "Only won the division last year because all the other teams were disasters".

Well, the above assessment is correct.  Looking back now, I know I ranked them too highly.  It was because they had won the division; I didn't want to drop them too drastically.  Ah well, hindsight 20/20.  On the positive side, Huberdeau is making a case for being the Calder winner this year.  In the negative side, Weiss is done for the year due to wrist surgery, and that means it will be really hard to trade him for something of value.  He's a free agent after this year, and at this point, is as good as gone.

Will they make the playoffs?  No.



NHL.com and Behind the Net were used to gather data.  If you're curious about PDO and Fenwick-Close, the former is the sum of on ice save percentage and on ice shooting percentage; it tends to regress toward 1000.  Fenwick is a plu-minus metric that uses shots attempted as a proxy for goals (blocked shots are not included, whereas in Corsi ratings, they are).  Expressed as a percentage, it indicates a team's proficiency at controlling play.  "Close" is defined as a tie game, or in the 1st or 2nd of a game within 2 goals.  This sub-category is used to offset the fact that teams tend to direct more shots at the net while they're trailing in an attempt to cut into the lead.


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